Study of the Intense Meteorological Event Occurred in September 2022 over the Marche Region with WRF Model: Impact of Lightning Data Assimilation on Rainfall and Lightning Prediction

A destructive V-shaped thunderstorm occurred over the Marche Region, in Central Italy, on 15 September 2022. Twelve people died during event, and damage to properties was extensive because small Misa River flooded area. The synoptic-scale conditions that caused this disastrous event are analysed go back presence of tropical cyclone Danielle eastern Atlantic. performance weather research forecasting (WRF) model using lightning data assimilation (LDA) is studied case by comparing forecast with control without assimilation. evaluated for precipitation lightning. characterised four intense 3-h (3 h) periods. forecasts these phases a very short-term (VSF) approach, which 3 h phase followed forecast. homemade 3D-Var used two different configurations: ANL, assimilated until start period, ANL-1H, assimilates 1 before period. sensitivity test number analyses also discussed. Results show LDA has significant positive impact case.